New Academic Study Confirms Stockton Violent Crime Approach Effective

The City of Stockton is the focus of a recently published study by researchers at the Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago. The research compares the City of Stockton to eleven (11) other California cities over three periods, 1998-2002, 2006-2008, and 2018-2022, comparing data and effectiveness of focused deterrence strategies and confirming that Stockton’s approach is effective in preventing and reducing gun violence.

Stockton uses the Ceasefire model, which is the City of Stockton's gang violence reduction plan, is referred to as the "triple bottom line" and includes three goals: 1) reduce gang homicides and shootings, 2) decrease recidivism and incarceration rates, and 3) strengthen police-community relations.

Mayor Kevin Lincoln stated, “The study concludes that gang members who participated in the Ceasefire intervention were “40% less likely to be shot” compared to gang members who did not receive the intervention. Additionally, recidivism was reduced by 25%, and violent recidivism was reduced by 37%. Outcomes that indicate our leadership and commitment to reducing violence in Stockton is making a difference.”

“The importance of looking at these three significant periods in our history, particularly with data from other large California cities, is that it offers the opportunity to see what has and what would have occurred in Stockton, when momentum is lost, leadership changes, partnerships are not sustained, and social services are interrupted. The study also illustrates how data is used to apply corresponding strategies with gangs and criminally active members of the community,” said City Manager Harry Black. “This is what the study, and policing programs, refer to as “pulling levers,” which this research confirms is “notoriously difficult to implement and sustain.” This requires constant monitoring, prioritization, resources, and leadership, using the Ceasefire model.”

The City of Stockton Office of Violence Prevention provides information on these efforts during quarterly community meetings referred to as Data Cafes. “As the research states, we are in constant contact with high-risk individuals through our street outreach workers, known as Peacekeepers, applying case management to this less than 1% of our population, who are typically younger men and at the greatest risk of being the victims or perpetrators of violent crime. Our communications are clear, direct, in-person, and respectful: violence will not be tolerated in our community. We are here to help with whatever they need, e.g., food, shelter, employment, counseling, education, and they are encouraged to step away from the violence,” shared Lora Larson, Director of the Office of Violence Prevention.

Partnerships are key to successfully preventing and reducing gang violence, as confirmed by the study. The City works closely with community-based organizations to help with social services. The Stockton Police Department and its local, state and federal criminal justice partners, work vigorously to prevent gang and gun violence.

Chief Stanley McFadden has made relationships with the community a priority, as well. “We’re building on our training and background in procedural justice by listening to and interacting with the community. Our relationships really make a difference. We go out as a team, take walks in neighborhoods, meet community members at BBQs and events. For enforcement, we are monitoring gang and gun activities and moving immediately to interrupt violence and remove guns from the streets. When violence occurs, there will be certain and swift consequences.”

The study confirms that this focused approach, involving the City Manager, the Office of Violence Prevention, Stockton Police Department, and community and law enforcement partners, is preventing and reducing gun violence in Stockton.

“We have sustained and adapted during the COVID pandemic and the George Floyd crisis, and we have responded by providing more money and resources, and not letting up or giving into these distractions. The data tells the story and guides our actions, because this is what helps us to focus on people, their families, and the community,” concluded City Manager Black.

To read the entire article, Braga, A. A., MacDonald, J. M., Douglas, S., Wade, B., & Struhl, B. (2024). Focused deterrence, strategic management, and effective gun violence prevention. Criminology & Public Policy, 1–28.